The Polish route will not withstand the sharp increase in Ukrainian cargo flows, – opinion

Polish ports, railways and road crossings remain critically important for Ukrainian logistics, but they are not able to fully replace the deep-water ports of Great Odesa.

This opinion was shared with USM by GOL CEO Pavlo Linnyk.

According to him, the capabilities of the Polish direction are limited at every stage of transportation – from railway border crossings and cargo transshipment through different gauges to the throughput capacity of intermodal terminals and Baltic ports.

“Poland is a critically important part of alternative logistics, but it cannot become a full-fledged replacement for Ukrainian deep-water ports. These are different scales,” Linnyk noted.

An additional limitation is that the Polish transport system primarily serves the needs of its own economy. A significant part of local operators is already working almost at the limit of their capabilities.

The greatest risk may be a simultaneous increase in the load on all links of the logistics chain. Due to the different track widths, cargo must be reloaded or wagons changed, after which delays can occur at terminals and directly in the ports.

Over the past three years, enterprises that have moved to western Ukraine have also formed permanent cargo flows through Poland. A sharp redirection of additional volumes of Ukrainian exports could cause queues at border crossings, overloading of terminals and a shortage of port capacities.

Read also: Suspension of the ports of Great Odesa. What market participants expect and how they are adapting