Three key buyers of Ukrainian wheat may reduce purchases in 2026/27 MY

Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia provided 62% of Ukrainian wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, but higher stocks may reduce their need for imports.

In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine may face a decrease in demand for wheat from three key buyers — Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia. Additional pressure will be exerted by Russia’s aggressive pricing policy, ASAP Agri analyst Inna Stepanenko told Latifundist.

According to her, in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported almost 14 million tons of wheat. The finale of the season was indicative. In the last quarter, 4 million tons were shipped, or 29% of the total volume. This is unusually high for the final stage. For comparison: a year earlier, only 2.6 million tons were shipped in the last quarter, or 16% of seasonal exports.

The role of the three largest buyers has increased significantly. Egypt’s share in exports increased from 14% to 27%, Algeria’s from 12% to 20%, Indonesia’s from 10% to 15%. Together, these three countries provided 62% of Ukrainian wheat exports, compared to 36% a year earlier.

The active finish to the season helped reduce carryover stocks. At the end of the 2025/26 MY, they amounted to 2.3 million tons. However, this is about 1 million tons more than a year earlier. Such stocks will put pressure on prices at the beginning of the new season, when grain from the new harvest enters the market.

In the new season, the situation for exporters may become more difficult. Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia enter the season with higher opening stocks. In addition, Egypt and Algeria are increasing their own production. All this may reduce their need for imports. The USDA forecast contains the same expectations.

Egypt has already noticeably reduced its activity after large-scale purchases. Therefore, at the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, Ukrainian exports to this country may remain limited. On the other hand, Indonesia and Algeria still retain interest in purchases.

A separate challenge is competition on the world market. Wheat production outside the Black Sea region is expected to decrease. However, the grain supply in the region itself will remain sufficient. Russia is already offering wheat at aggressive prices. This may strengthen its position, primarily on the Egyptian market.

Also, the day before, USM wrote that Russia plans to launch a logistics hub in Syria, which regularly receives stolen Ukrainian grain.