UGA: the harvest in 2024 will drop by another 1.5 million tons

The “Ukrainian Grain Association” (UGA) lowered the forecast for the grain and oil crops harvest in 2024 to 74.6 million tons.

According to UGA forecasts, the potential harvest of grain and oil crops this year will amount to 74.6 million tons. This is 1.5 million tons less than last year, the UGA press service reported .

The potential decrease in the harvest in the new season is caused by the reduction of sown areas (due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and expensive export logistics). Also, the slightly dry period in May in the east and south of Ukraine affects the decrease in the forecast.

Under such conditions, exports in the new season of 2024/2025 will amount to 43.5 million tons. In the current season, the export of grain and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grain and oilseeds.

Thus, the wheat harvest in 2024 is forecast at the level of 19.1 million tons. The potential export of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, transitional balances will amount to about 2.4 million tons.

Barley harvest can reach 4.6 million tons. Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at the level of approximately 2 million tons.

UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons. At the same time, the potential export can amount to about 20.5 million tons.

The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at the level of 13.7 million tons. Potential export can amount to 250,000 tons, the volume of sunflower oil processing can reach almost 13.6 million tons.

The rapeseed harvest is forecast at the level of 4.3 million tons. Exports in 2024/2025 may amount to 3.4 million tons.

Soybean acreage may, on the contrary, increase due to its profitability this year. Soybean harvest is expected at the level of 5.5 million tons. Potential export in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 million tons.

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