Trade wars may have a positive impact on Ukrainian sunflower

New US tariffs on imported goods affect the global vegetable oil market, but for Ukraine it may open up new opportunities.

The introduction of US tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, as well as the possible introduction of restrictions on European products, caused serious fluctuations on the stock exchanges and affected the vegetable oil market. This is reported by analysts of PUSK, Elevatorist writes.

“Seasonal factors supported the trend of rising prices, but information about possible tariffs on European goods changed the situation. As a result, soybean oil prices fell sharply, which also dragged down the sunflower oil market. We have already lost about $ 5-10 per ton over the past week,” experts note. “Although the seasonal model still predicts a possible increase in sunflower prices in March-April, trade wars are likely to slow down this process.”

Earlier, it was predicted that the market would reach the level of 29-29.5 thousand. UAH/t, but due to new factors, the probability of this is decreasing. Currently, the average price for sunflower is about UAH 28,000/t, although short-term jumps are possible.

“If the trend towards falling prices for soybean oil continues, then sunflower oil may lose another $10 per ton in the coming days. This, in turn, will lead to a further decrease in the cost of sunflower by UAH 200–300/t this week,” analysts warn.

However, against the background of general losses, the Ukrainian sunflower oil market may receive certain benefits.

“American soybean oil may practically disappear from the European market or significantly reduce its presence. This means that Europe will be forced to look for an alternative — perhaps in Argentine soybean oil, perhaps in palm oil. However, part of the demand may switch to sunflower oil,” the PUSK predicts.

As USM reported the day before, the Ministry of Economy named three key sectors of Ukrainian exports in the near future.