Russia has stopped provocations in the Baltic Sea for the safety of the “shadow fleet”, – Estonian intelligence

Estonian intelligence believes that Russia has stopped provocations against NATO countries in the Baltic Sea after the Alliance’s retaliatory actions.

Russia has adjusted its behavior and is trying to avoid a direct conflict with NATO, Kaupo Rozin, the director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, told ERR.

According to him, the Russians have begun to plan more carefully the flights of attack UAVs attacking Ukraine. Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea “strictly follow the routes” in order to avoid incidents with NATO countries. In particular, after the launch of the Baltic Sentry mission, there have been no repeated incidents with damage to underwater cables.

“This does not exclude the possibility of future incidents, since military activity remains high and the war in Ukraine is ongoing. Theoretically, such events are possible, but at the moment we see no signs that Russia is deliberately trying to escalate the situation,” Kaupo Rozin noted.

The Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Department also believes that at present the Russian Federation has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic countries or NATO in general.

At the same time, the Kremlin regime’s priority is to guarantee the safe passage of tankers, in particular the vessels of the so-called “shadow fleet”, since most of Russia’s oil exports pass through this region.

Kaupo Rozin added that Europe should continue to put pressure on the “shadow fleet”. The aim of such pressure should be to change the positions of the states under whose flags the tankers of the “shadow fleet” sail, as well as insurance companies servicing Russian transportation.

As a reminder, in November 2025, a Russian boat under the flag of the Wagner PMC was spotted near Estonia. The Estonian Foreign Ministry made a public request regarding this incident to the Russian Foreign Ministry.