Ministry of Agrarian Policy lowers grain export forecast due to Russian attacks on ports
11.08.2026 - 13:58
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy expects grain exports to reach 38–40 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotskyi said this in an interview with Reuters, explaining the revision of the forecast by Russian attacks on the port infrastructure of the Odesa region.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine has lowered the forecast for grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year to 38–40 million tons against the previous estimate of 43 million tons.
This is the first official revision of the export forecast after the escalation of Russian attacks in late July, which significantly complicated, and in fact stopped shipments through the ports of Great Odesa at certain stages.
In recent weeks, Russian troops have been attacking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals and civilian vessels entering or leaving Ukrainian ports almost daily.
Ukraine exports over 90% of its grain by sea, so prolonged port disruptions directly impact export opportunities. Agricultural products remain the largest commodity category of Ukrainian exports.
The decline in export opportunities is already creating additional problems for domestic logistics. On Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that due to export disruptions, Ukraine may experience a shortage of grain storage capacity of about 11 million tons.
Earlier, Vysotskyi estimated the potential losses of the agricultural sector from port blockages at $3 billion.
As USM wrote the day before, Ukrainian grain exports through ports have plummeted by 84%.
