Australia can outperform Ukraine in grain exports

In the new season, the crop of Australian wheat became the second largest in the history of the country.

A year and a half after Australian farms were devastated by a drought, grain growers plan to harvest a second record harvest in a row, Reuters reported.

Australian forecasters last week raised their wheat production targets to 32.6 million tonnes for the season, making it the second after the country’s record harvest last season.

Australia is projected to strengthen its position as one of the world’s top four wheat exporters, but could outperform the United States and Ukraine.

The agricultural revival has contributed to soaring land prices in rural areas, although a crowded market is inciting supply chain disruptions affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ahead of the harvest season, Australia lacks machinery and workers. Also, the situation can be affected by the plague of mice in some regions, which can lead to local crop losses.

The country’s two major grain-growing states, Western Australia and New South Wales, provide crops with favorable planting conditions, after which it usually begins to rain.

At the beginning of last year alone, the drought subsided in Australia, which continued in the country for about three years.

At the moment, Ukraine has exported 11.55 million tons of grain and leguminous crops – so far this figure is 10% higher than last year. How the situation will turn out in the future depends on the logistics capacity in the country. At least for now, we are forecasting congested railways and terminals, as well as unstable export rates in the fourth quarter of 2021.