Due to the shutdown of the ports of Great Odesa, 5 million tons of sunflower may not be processed

Six vessels that regularly call at ports produce a maximum of 60 thousand tons of oil per month.

The possibilities of deep-sea oil exports have decreased significantly. If in July 22 tankers with oil left deep-sea ports, then in August – eight, in September – seven, and in October only four. This was reported by Barva Invest senior analyst Viktoriya Blazhko, writes Latifundist.

Currently, deep-sea exports are provided by six tankers, which, despite the risks, regularly call at ports. Their potential is about 60 thousand tons of oil per month, and this, according to the analyst, is the maximum possible volume.

Thus, in the 2026/27 marketing year, up to 5 million tons of sunflower may not be processed due to problems with maritime logistics and security risks.

Under normal conditions, Ukraine could process about 12 million tons of sunflower and export about 5 million tons of vegetable oils. The Barva Invest baseline scenario, however, envisages processing only 7.2 million tons and exporting 2.9 million tons of oils.

“Our baseline scenario assumes that ports will not resume normal operations by the end of the season. It also does not take into account the effect of the recent decision to prioritize the transportation of vegetable oils for export,” Blazhko noted.

This refers to Cabinet Resolution No. 1300 of October 20, which gave oil priority on the railway, in ports and at the border. Vessels loading oil in bulk should first dock at berths and pass through the Sulinsky Canal.

Processing capacities are also under pressure. Passport figures in Ukraine are about 23 million tons, but only about 17 million tons can actually operate. About 3 million tons of annual sunflower processing capacity are under security pressure: some enterprises have not been operating since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, some have been operating intermittently.

According to Blazhko, the statement that Ukraine can process the entire oilseed crop is no longer true. This season, the oilseed crop is expected to be about 21 million tons.

The greatest risks remain for sunflower. The situation with soybeans and rapeseed is less threatening due to smaller harvest volumes and the proximity of a large sales market – the European Union.

As USM reported the day before, only 10 thousand tons of grain were delivered to the ports of Odesa by rail per month.