Ukrainian corn price may rise to $230/t in October

Ukrainian corn exports remained low in September, but a sharp recovery in the market is expected in October.

According to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK (created within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council), the delay is due to the later start of mass harvesting in the center and north of the country.

There, harvesting of the main areas will begin approximately on October 10–15. In addition, even “dry” corn now has a moisture content of 16–18%, which requires processing before shipment to ports.

Limited supply on the domestic market is already pushing up quotes. At the end of September, prices are in the range of $200–207/t on a CPT-port basis, and for quick delivery in October–November, you can get up to $209/t.

If the harvest continues slowly and supply remains tight, prices could rise to $210–212/t in the near future and even reach $230/t by the end of October.

The global situation will determine the situation in the future. The US is preparing for a record harvest, which will increase global supply and may reduce corn prices at the end of the year. The main sales markets for Ukrainian grain remain the EU, Turkey and Egypt, but competition there will intensify.

“October could be a month of profitable spot deals, while the end of the year is likely to bring a correction under the pressure of global factors,” the analysts conclude.

As USM reported, last week, export barley prices fell following wheat and corn.