Up to 5 million tons of Ukrainian corn may not find buyers in the new season, — ASAP Agri

Ukraine enters the 2025/26 corn export season with a record supply but weak demand.

As of November 26, Ukrainian farmers had shipped only 2.4 million tons of grain abroad — half the amount last year. This was reported by ASAP Agri analyst Viktoriya Blazhko in a comment to Latifundist.

This is the slowest start in the last three seasons. The reasons are a delay in the harvest, damaged energy and railway infrastructure, as well as high competition on the world market. The USA and South America are offering record volumes of corn at lower prices and with predictable logistics.

Meanwhile, the EU has sharply reduced purchases of Ukrainian corn: 1.1 million tons compared to 2.5 million tons last year. Ukraine’s share in European imports fell from 52.7% to 20.5%, as most of the market went to Brazil and the USA. Turkey, the largest buyer of the previous season, also reduced purchases by half – to 535 thousand tons.

Experts predict that even in an optimistic scenario, total exports of Ukrainian corn will amount to about 20 million tons, while the production potential reaches 24.5 million tons. That is, approximately 5 million tons will remain without buyers.

“This surplus may create price pressure in the second half of the season – both in the domestic market and in exports,” Blazhko notes.

Earlier, USM wrote that Brazil is pushing Ukraine out of the Chinese corn market.