India can replace Black Sea wheat in the Bangladesh market, — ASAP Agri

ASAP Agri estimates that Ukrainian wheat exports in 2026/27 MY could fall to 5–10 million tons if deep-water ports remain blocked.

Disruptions in the operation of deep-water ports in Ukraine and Russia could affect wheat exports from the Black Sea region and change trade flows in Asia. This is reported by ASAP Agri.

According to the company’s scenarios, Ukrainian wheat exports in 2026/27 MY could fall to 5–10 million tons if deep-water ports remain blocked. Russian wheat exports could potentially fall to around 25 million tons under similar restrictions.

The greatest need to replace Black Sea wheat will arise in Asian importing countries. Bangladesh is one of the destinations most dependent on a possible reduction in supplies from the Black Sea region. Its buyers may need to shift a significant portion of their purchases to other sources.

Sandip Bansal, managing director of Grain Flour India Pvt. Ltd., believes that in such a situation, India can strengthen its role as a supplier to Bangladesh. Among the advantages of the Indian market are a large harvest, the opening of an export quota and geographical proximity to the importing country.

“All geopolitical developments now point to one clear possibility: Bangladesh may become significantly dependent on Indian wheat supplies over the next 5-50 days. Given the disruptions and uncertainty about alternative sources, India may increasingly become the most practical and reliable nearby source for Bangladesh,” Bansal concluded.

As USM wrote, at least five ships involved in the transportation of grain through the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse were attacked in the Black Sea the day before.