Logistics is becoming more expensive and decentralized: how business is being restructured due to war

USM explains how a new state lending mechanism can help businesses restore warehouses and logistics infrastructure amid a shortage, rising rents, and companies moving to a decentralized model with multiple regional hubs.

Ukrainian businesses will be able to access up to UAH 1 billion in loans with state compensation for part of the interest rate to restore fuel, warehouse, and logistics infrastructure. The mechanism is being launched at a time when Russian attacks continue to reduce available warehouse space, and companies are increasingly distributing inventories across multiple regions instead of concentrating them in one large complex.

The program has already entered into force. According to the European Business Association, 47 banks have joined it, which are currently adapting their credit products to the new conditions. The maximum amount of a state-backed loan is UAH 1 billion, the minimum is UAH 100 million, and for projects in areas of possible or active hostilities, it is UAH 30 million. The state will compensate 5.5 percentage points of the bank’s base rate.

The funds can be directed not only directly to the restoration of damaged facilities. The mechanism provides for financing protective structures, underground storage, fuel tanks and other solutions that should make the business more resilient to future attacks.

The business is moving from one large warehouse to several smaller ones

For the logistics market, such support appears against the backdrop of a significant change in the very model of companies’ work.

As Volodymyr Guz, commercial director of the logistics company Global Ocean Link, told USM, businesses are currently more actively considering warehouse facilities in the western regions — primarily in the Lviv region and Transcarpathia. At the same time, the problem lies in the limited amount of high-quality warehouse real estate: a significant part of the available premises are actually hangars that still need to be modernized to modern logistics standards.

At the same time, companies are trying to reduce the risk of losing a large part of their inventory at once.

“Instead of one large complex of 15–20 thousand square meters, companies are increasingly looking for several smaller warehouses of 3–5 thousand square meters, and sometimes even a thousand, in order to create small regional distribution points near the main logistics hubs,” Guz explains.

Current market data confirms this trend. According to analysts’ research, in January-August 2026, relocations and relocations with simultaneous expansion already provided 82% of all lease agreements with warehouses. Only 18% fell on ordinary expansion. The most active tenants were logistics operators – 42% of transactions. Analysts also directly record that large companies are increasingly distributing inventories between facilities in the western regions.

The reason for this transition is not only the desire to be closer to the western border. In 2026, attacks significantly reduced the supply of warehouse real estate itself.

Quality warehouses are becoming more expensive

The shortage naturally puts pressure on prices. According to Volodymyr Huzy, if previously it was possible to find warehouse space for rent in the western regions for about $3–5 per square meter, now the cost of quality facilities can reach $10–15.

Estimates from real estate consultants vary depending on the class, location, and characteristics of a particular facility. That is, for companies, restructuring logistics means additional costs on several levels at once. It is necessary to find new areas, modernize them, distribute stocks between several points, and rebuild transport routes.

This is where lending can give businesses additional resources. According to Huzy, it can help finance the modernization of warehouses and the transition to a new model in conditions when companies lose not only real estate, but also goods that were inside damaged complexes.

Separately, the state has expanded the mechanism for compensating for such losses. The property that may be subject to compensation for war losses has been added to fuel in excise warehouses, vehicles for its transportation, agricultural machinery, trucks and trailers weighing more than 7.5 tons. The maximum compensation for insurance premiums has been increased to UAH 5 million per business entity per year.

Imports are growing faster than exports

Another problem that Global Ocean Link draws attention to goes beyond warehouse real estate.

According to Guzy, import cargo flows to Ukraine continue to work: companies make new bookings, and domestic demand for goods remains. At the same time, the reduction of part of Ukrainian production changes the structure of supplies.

If earlier businesses could import raw materials, which were then processed by Ukrainian enterprises, now part of such a flow is replaced by finished goods from abroad.

This is confirmed by statistics from the State Customs Service. In the first nine months of 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth more than $75.1 billion, while exports amounted to about $29.6 billion. Thus, the ratio already exceeds 2.5 to 1. For comparison, for the entire year 2025, imports amounted to $84.8 billion, and exports – $40.3 billion, that is, the ratio was close to 2.1 to 1.

If we look separately at only the third quarter of 2026, the difference is even greater: according to the State Customs Service, imports amounted to $25.9 billion against $8.5 billion in exports – in fact, a little more than 3 to 1.

Global Ocean Link does not exclude that the overall ratio may further deteriorate to 1:3 or even 1:3.5.

Under such conditions, the issue of restoring logistics gradually goes beyond the repair of a separate warehouse or finding a new premises. Businesses need to simultaneously protect inventories, create backup logistics points, pay higher rents, and maintain routes that have become more difficult due to the war.

The new lending mechanism can partially alleviate this burden, especially for companies that have lost their own facilities or are now creating a distributed network of warehouses. However, the market itself is already moving towards a model where the main factor is not only the cost of logistics, but also the ability of the company to continue operating after the loss of one of its nodes.

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