USDA raised the forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports
15.10.2024 - 12:43
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its forecast for the 2024/2025 marketing year for major crops.
The USDA raised its forecast for Ukrainian wheat production and exports, but lowered expectations for corn. This is reported by UCAB.
According to updated data, the forecast of wheat production in Ukraine for 2024/2025 was increased by 0.6 million tons to 22.9 million tons. The export forecast was increased by 1 million tons to 16 million tons.
In the global wheat market, initial stocks are forecast to increase against the background of simultaneous reductions in consumption, production and trade. This is likely to lead to an increase in ending stocks.
Total production will decrease by 2.8 million tons to 794.1 million tons, mainly due to lower harvests in the EU, the Russian Federation, India and Brazil. However, this is partially offset by an increase in production in Ukraine by 0.6 million tons to 22.9 million tons.
Wheat consumption in the world will decrease by 2.4 million tons to 802.5 million tons, mostly at the expense of India and Afghanistan.
It is also expected that world trade in wheat will decrease by 0.7 million tons to 215.8 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in exports from the EU (-1.5 million tons to 30 million tons), but this will also be partially compensated by an increase in exports from of Ukraine (+1 million tons — up to 16 million tons).
At the same time, USDA reduced the forecast of corn production in Ukraine by 1 million tons to 26.2 million tons. Exports are likely to decrease to 23 million tons.
Global corn production is expected to decrease by 1.4 million tons to 1,217.2 million tons in FY 2024/2025, in particular due to lower harvests in Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines. At the same time, this is partially compensated by the growth of production in the USA and India.
The export of corn on the world market will decrease by 0.9 million tons to 190.5 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in indicators for Ukraine (-1 million tons to 23 million tons) and an increase in the USA (+0.6 million tons to 59.1 million tons).
The day before, USM wrote that over 2 million tons of Ukrainian products were exported to Italy in 8 months.
