USDA lowers forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 14 million tons

In the 2025/26 marketing year, the forecast for Ukrainian grain exports fell by approximately 500 thousand tons.

In the January report, the USDA adjusted the global wheat balance. This is reported by Elevatorist.

Thus, the forecast for world wheat production was increased to 842.17 million tons (+4.36 million tons m/m), world exports to 219.76 million tons (+1.05 million tons), and ending stocks to 278.25 million tons (+3.38 million tons).

Against this background, the forecast for exports from Ukraine decreased to 14.0 million tons (–0.5 million tons), the harvest remained unchanged at 23.0 million tons, and ending stocks are 1.93 million tons.

The US estimates production at 54.01 million tons, exports unchanged at 24.49 million tons. The forecast for ending stocks was increased to 25.21 million tons (+0.69 million tons).

In the EU, exports are forecast to fall to 32.5 million tons (–0.5), the harvest remains at the previous level of 144 million tons, and stocks will increase to 14.21 million tons (+0.5).

The day before, USM wrote that Ukrainian grain exports to the EU have fallen sharply.