USDA raises forecast for wheat harvest and exports from Ukraine

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its global wheat production forecast for the 2026/27 MY to 820.06 million tons.

This is 1 million tons more than the May estimate, Ukragroconsult reports.

In turn, the forecast for world exports has increased to 211.95 million tons, and ending stocks to 275.42 million tons. At the same time, changes in the balance remain moderate due to the simultaneous increase in global consumption.

For Ukraine, the USDA has improved its wheat harvest estimate to 23.5 million tons (versus 23 million tons in May). The export forecast has also been raised from 13 to 14 million tons, which indicates expectations of greater export activity in the new season. At the same time, the forecast for ending stocks has been lowered to 2.53 million tons, which indicates more active use of domestic resources.

The most notable increase in forecast among key exporters was for Russia, where the expected wheat harvest was increased to 88 million tons. At the same time, the USDA lowered the production estimate for Australia by 2 million tons, while the forecasts for Canada, the EU and Argentina remained unchanged.

Earlier, USM reported that the Ministry of Economy set minimum export prices for June.