Port shelling won’t create container shortage like in 2022, an opinion

The termination of some container services to Ukrainian ports is unlikely to lead to a shortage of container equipment or a sharp increase in sea freight.

This was stated in a comment to USM by Olena Radchenko, Director of Corporate Development and Finance at United Liner Agency Ltd., an agent of the Ocean Network Express (ONE) container line in Ukraine.

According to her, the Ukrainian container market is already significantly different from the situation in 2022. During this time, stocks of container equipment have been formed, inland depots and dry ports have appeared, and the logistics market has learned to work with alternative routes. Therefore, a recurrence of a large-scale shortage of containers is currently unlikely, although individual local imbalances by type of equipment or region are not excluded.

The USM interlocutor also does not predict an automatic significant increase in world sea freight rates due to the termination of operations of individual services to Ukrainian ports. In her opinion, a redistribution of cargo flows within global networks will occur more quickly, although short-term fluctuations in Black Sea services are possible.

At the same time, she sees the greatest risks in land logistics. If significant volumes of cargo are reoriented to road and rail transportation through Poland and Romania again, demand for these routes will increase, which may lead to higher delivery prices.

Read also: Suspension of the ports of Great Odesa. What market participants expect and how they are adapting.