Ukrainian grain exports through ports have collapsed by 84%, — SPIKE Brokers

Rail grain deliveries to the ports of Great Odesa decreased more than sixfold, and some flows were reoriented to the western border and the Danube.

In early August, Ukrainian agricultural exports slowed down sharply amid problems with maritime logistics. This is reported by SPIKE Brokers in its weekly market review.

From August 1 to 6, Ukraine exported 312.9 thousand tons of agricultural products compared to 784.5 thousand tons for the same period in July, i.e. physical volumes decreased by 60.1%.

At the same time, export revenue decreased much less – from $326.9 million to $201.5 million, or by 38.4%. This is explained by a change in the export structure: the share of bulk grains decreased in early August, while oilseeds, processed products and other goods with a higher cost per ton gained greater weight.

On average, one ton of exported agricultural products was worth about $644 in August, compared to $417 in July.

The largest reduction was in grains. In the first six days of August, Ukraine exported 93.2 thousand tons of wheat, compared to 294.9 thousand tons in the same period in July. Corn exports fell to 33.5 thousand tons from 293.7 thousand tons.

At the same time, a seasonal flow of a new rapeseed crop appeared in the export structure – 27.9 thousand tons were shipped in six days. Exports of soybean meal increased to 25.7 thousand tons, compared to 18.6 thousand tons at the beginning of July.

The most noticeable logistical failure was in rail transportation to seaports.

In the first five days of August, 182 thousand tons of grain cargo and milling products were transported by rail — 44.1% less than in the same period in July, and 40.8% less than last year.

The port direction decreased especially sharply. Only 40.8 thousand tons of grain were delivered to seaports by rail from August 1 to 5, compared to 259.1 thousand tons for the corresponding period in July. Thus, the drop was 84.3%.

The average daily unloading of grain in ports as of August 5 decreased to 192 wagons — 498 wagons less than on July 30. There were 568 grain trucks in the direction of the ports, which is 788 wagons less.

At the same time, the average daily loading of grain wagons on the network fell to 52 wagons compared to 580 wagons at the end of July.

Against this background, part of the cargo flows are reorienting to land routes. In the first five days of August, the average daily transfer of grain cargo and meal through border crossings was 142 wagons compared to 139 wagons in July.

The Romanian direction increased the most — to 31.2 wagons per day, which is 29.3 wagons more than the July level. The Polish direction increased the transfer to 27.4 wagons per day, or by 13.8 wagons.

In contrast, Hungary reduced the figure to 23 wagons per day, and Slovakia — to 14.2 wagons.

At the same time, the accumulation of grain wagons in the direction of the western border increased from 369 to 521 wagons, or by 41.2%.

Separately from the general reduction in port logistics, the Danube cluster operates. The number of grain carriers in motion to Danube ports increased to 1,296 wagons, 155 more than before.

The average daily unloading there increased to 157 wagons, or by 106 wagons. The load was about 90 wagons per day.

Thus, the logistics picture at the beginning of August differs significantly depending on the direction: the ports of Greater Odessa have lost most of the rail flow, while the western border and the Danube are partially taking on the role of alternative channels.

The situation creates various risks for individual crops. Wheat remains the most vulnerable, a significant part of which is traditionally oriented to North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

For these directions, land logistics cannot fully replace sea deliveries with large batches. For August 1–6, the main export destinations of Ukrainian wheat were Spain, Egypt, Israel, Indonesia and Lebanon. At the same time, corn has more opportunities for reorientation to the European market via the western border. According to SPIKE Brokers, forward contracts for October–December on FCA Chop were concluded in the range of €192–194 per ton, and for January–June — €198–206.

The port price of corn this week fell to $195 per ton, while on the western basis it was $220. Thus, the land route forms a separate price premium, compensating for part of the additional logistics costs.

In the oilseed market, the gap between the sea and land routes is also increasing.

The port price of rapeseed fell to $500 per ton in a week, while on FCA Chop it rose to $545. In the first six days of August, Ukraine exported 27.9 thousand tons of rapeseed – more than for the whole of July in the previous comparable indicator.

For rapeseed, the proximity of European consumers and the possibility of land delivery partially reduce dependence on Black Sea logistics.

On the soybean market, the situation is more heterogeneous. GMO soybeans fell to $420 per ton in a week at the CPT port, and to $435 at FCA Chop. At the same time, non-GMO soybeans on the western border rose in price to $470 per ton.

Also, the day before, USM wrote that the waiting time for ships to exit the Sulina Canal had increased to 2–3 days due to the increase in the number of ships.