How the delay in fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will affect Ukraine
1.06.2026 - 14:31
The aggravation of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz has once again drawn the attention of the global agricultural market to the issue of fertilizer supplies. A significant part of the world’s trade in fertilizers and raw materials for their production passes through this route.
For Ukraine, which remains one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters and at the same time depends on the import of part of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, possible disruptions in the operation of the strait mean not only the risk of rising product prices, but also a potential impact on future yields and the cost of crop production.
USM continues to analyze how events in the Strait of Hormuz affect logistics and prices in Ukraine. This time — to what extent the Ukrainian market depends on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and what consequences may arise for the agricultural sector, as well as how critical the experts see the situation.
General state of the industry
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects not only energy markets but also fertilizer shipping routes. For example, according to the IFA, about 34% of global urea trade, 23% of ammonia trade and 18% of MAP (monoammonium phosphate) and DAP (diammonium phosphate) trade pass through the Persian Gulf countries, whose supplies depend on this route. Other analysts generalize this as about a third of global fertilizer trade through the strait.
The sulfur chain is also critical for phosphates: the IFA estimates that sulfur exports related to this corridor and the Strait of Hormuz in general account for 49% of global trade. The direct risk for MOP-potassium is much lower, as Canada, Germany, the US, the EU and Laos dominate the largest exporters of potassium chloride, rather than the Gulf countries.
For Ukraine and foreign farmers, the biggest problem is not so much the complete physical “cutting off” from their own suppliers, but the sharp increase in the price of nitrogen and phosphate items and competition for alternative lots. For example, in 2024, Ukraine imported 1.45 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers, and in 2025 – already 1.77–1.90 million tons (according to estimates by Group DF and IA “Infoindustria”); at the same time, Ukrainian production in 2026 covers only about 50–60% of the needs for nitrogen fertilizers.
In phosphates, the dependence is higher: in January–November 2025, imports of phosphorus and phosphorus-nitrogen fertilizers amounted to about 410 thousand tons against an estimated need of 700–800 thousand tons, and Ukrainian analysts directly called the segment structurally deficient, so the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will only worsen the situation.
A short delay, especially outside the peak of purchases, would mean a price shock for Ukraine rather than an immediate shortage: in the spring of 2026, the Ukrainian Agricultural Commission emphasized that farms “have built up fuel and fertilizer reserves in advance.” But if the delay falls on the August–October 2026 window, the risk shifts to a physical shortage — primarily for UAN (urea-ammonium mixture), ammonium nitrate, and phosphate formulas for rapeseed and winter wheat. This could lead to an increase in cost (in some cases by 50%) for winter wheat, corn, and sunflower. In the oilseed group, soybean is the least “nitrogen-sensitive,” but rapeseed is one of the most vulnerable due to its high demand for both nitrogen and phosphorus.
Thus, the blockade in Hormuz is hitting fertilizers in two channels at once. The first is direct: large physical volumes of urea, ammonia, DAP/MAP and sulfur pass through the Persian Gulf. The second is indirect: about 20% of the world’s LNG trade passes through the strait, which increases the cost of nitrogen fertilizers far beyond the region. This is why analysts described the March 2026 escalation as an immediate blow to the availability of nitrogen and phosphate products, and not just a local logistical failure.
In practical terms, for Ukraine this means the following: nitrogen and phosphates have a high direct global vulnerability to the blockade of Hormuz, while potassium has a lower, but not zero, indirect vulnerability. Analysts directly indicate that the increase in the price of nitrogen and phosphates can cause “cross-nutrient impacts” even for products that do not themselves directly depend on Hormuz.
For reference. Cross-nutrient impacts are the phenomenon in which the presence, absorption, or deficiency of one nutrient (macro- or micronutrient) directly affects the metabolism or efficiency of others.
What Ukrainian logisticians say
As noted by the CEO of the logistics company TEUS, Dmitry Kazanin, the situation with the Strait of Hormuz once again shows that fertilizers are not just a commodity item in world trade, but rather an element of food security. If the movement of ammonia, sulfur, urea or other key components stops or slows down, the consequences are felt not only by the chemical industry, but also by the agricultural sector, the price of grain, the cost of production and, ultimately, food stability in the world.
“This is a very important signal for Ukraine. We already live in conditions where logistics has become part of geopolitics. Risks in the Black Sea, attacks on infrastructure, restrictions on energy supplies, instability of sea routes – all this directly affects the cost and availability of cargo. And now we see that the same vulnerability exists at the global level,” Dmitry notes.
The conclusion, he says, is simple: countries that do not have a sustainable logistics system become dependent on one route, one port, one strait, or one political decision. And this, in turn, is dangerous.
“Ukraine needs to develop not just the import or export of fertilizers, but a complete system: seaports, alternative routes, buffer warehouses, fast transshipment, rail and road logistics, digital cargo control and clear rules for business. Because in today’s world, the winner is not the one who simply bought cheaper. The winner is the one who can guarantee delivery on time. We see how every failure in logistics immediately turns into a financial risk for the farmer, trader, importer and end consumer. Fertilizers must arrive on time, because the agricultural season does not wait. If logistics is delayed by several weeks, it is no longer just a transport problem – it is a problem of the future harvest,” Dmytro Kazanin summarizes.
As noted by the founder and CEO of Porta Maris, Yevgeny Perez Baro, the World Bank is already predicting a 31% increase in fertilizer prices in 2026, in particular a 60% jump in urea prices.
“Against this backdrop, the estimate of another 45 million people facing acute food insecurity does not look like an emotional warning, but a very concrete scenario. The World Bank, IMF and World Food Programme are saying it outright: more expensive energy, fertilisers and transport bottlenecks are inevitably pushing food prices up,” the expert notes.
According to Yevgeny, it is important for the market to understand something else: the problem no longer looks like a short-term shock. The fertiliser market was tense even before Hormuz. China tightened export restrictions, European producers were cutting output, and urea prices began to rise at the start of the conflict. According to Argus, the world has already lost at least 2 million tonnes of urea production, with almost 1 million tonnes stuck on ships in the Gulf.
“I consider this to be the worst possible time, because the blow fell precisely on the sowing season. That is, even after the opening of the strait, it will take weeks or months of limited availability to clear the queue. Fertilizers are an input resource for the future harvest, and if they do not arrive within the required window, the logistical delay very quickly turns into lower yields, more expensive grain, pressure on the cost of feed, and then on meat, milk and food inflation. That is why the UN International Trade Center directly says that for developing countries, fertilizers are today even more urgent than oil and gas. This is no longer a story about transport. This is a story about the sustainability of economies that critically depend on timely access to agricultural resources,” shares the opinion of the founder of Porta Maris. Thus, at the moment, the most realistic scenario for Ukraine does not seem to be a physical shortage of fertilizers, but a significant increase in prices and increased competition for alternative supplies. At the same time, a prolonged disruption of logistics in the Strait of Hormuz, especially on the eve of the autumn sowing campaign, may create real risks of shortages of certain types of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.
Experts agree that the current situation once again demonstrates the critical role of logistics in ensuring food security. For Ukraine, this means the need to diversify supply channels, develop its own fertilizer production and strengthen logistics infrastructure to minimize dependence on global bottlenecks in world trade.
Read also: Crisis is inevitable: how events in the Strait of Hormuz affect logistics and prices in Ukraine
