Grain

The market is reacting to the threat of a new escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the risks of disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region.

Europe is proposed to create a special Port State Control regime for vessels carrying Ukrainian agricultural exports.

Further imports above the established volume involve payment of duties, which makes Ukrainian grain lose its price competitiveness.

Ukraine and Russia sharply reduced wheat export rates in August due to shipping problems and attacks on port infrastructure.

At the same time, the rate for grain trucks in September will not change and will be 3271 UAH per car per day excluding VAT.

At the same time, the largest alternative destination for Ukrainian agricultural products currently remains Romania.

Ukrainian grain is transported in Ukrainian wagons, so its transit does not limit Moldovan farmers’ access to the wagon fleet.

Trains from Ukraine are accepted after other cargoes, and due to the busy port terminals, they can be idle for several days.

The negotiations will take place against the backdrop of the union’s statements about possible mass protests if the authorities do not propose a solution to organize transportation.

ASAP Agri estimates that Ukrainian wheat exports in 2026/27 MY could fall to 5–10 million tons if deep-water ports remain blocked.